Get Real

We’ve seen some headlines recently that suggest home prices along the Front Range have peaked and are starting to decline.

When we dig in and do the research, this is what we find…

Home prices are still going up, just not as fast as they have been.

We’ve known that the double-digit appreciation that we’ve seen for the last several years could not be sustained and we expected the pace of appreciation to slow down.

So far in 2019, this is the case.  Prices still going up, just not as fast.

It’s like running up stairs.  Eventually you will get tired and you will need to start walking (but you’re still going up).

Headlines that suggest that prices have peaked and are falling create unrealistic expectations for buyers and give sellers a skewed perspective on the market.

Here are the numbers…

Average Price:

  • Up 1.53% in Metro Denver
  • Up 6.1% in Larimer County
  • Up 5.1% in Weld County

Months of Inventory:

  • 5 Months in Metro Denver
  • 5 Months in Larimer County
  • 4 Months in Weld County
  • (Remember that 4-6 months of inventory represents a balanced market)

There has been an increase in Days on Market which means that homes are taking longer to sell.  But the increase is measured in days, not months.

Here are those numbers…

Days on Market:

  • Up 4 Days in Metro Denver
  • Up 11 Days in Larimer County
  • Up 3 Days in Weld County

So, be mindful of headlines that can be sensationalized and might suggest that the market is falling.

Bottom line, the market is going up, just not as fast as it was.

Posted on April 5, 2019 at 5:50 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate, Sellers | Tagged , , , ,

Party Like It’s 2018!

 

Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.

You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019

(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).

While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).

Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.

Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.

Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!

Posted on March 24, 2019 at 5:29 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Condo Cyclone

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools last week, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

What’s the “Condo Cyclone”? It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

 

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
• Want to see the latest market trends? 
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home? 
• Interested in what it takes to own investment property? 
• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com

Posted on March 20, 2019 at 4:55 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Misery Index


Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”

A valuable statistic with a funny title.

The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.

It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.

Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.

The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.

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         If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us.

We would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 28, 2019 at 6:35 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts, Gardner Report | Tagged ,

Our Forecast

Our Forecast

 

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

 

Thank you to the 700 people who attended.  We appreciate your support!

 

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:

 

  • In 2018 Prices went up:
    • 8% in Fort Collins
    • 8% in Loveland
    • 8.5% in Greeley
    • 8% in Metro Denver
  • Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
    • Up 25% in Northern Colorado
    • Up 45% in Metro Denver
  • There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
  • There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
    • New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
    • Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
    • The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
    • The homeownership rate is back to the long-term average.
  • Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
    • 6% in Fort Collins
    • 6% in Loveland
    • 7% in Greeley
    • 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 18, 2019 at 7:22 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Gardner Report, Real Estate, Sellers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

More Choices

Great news for buyers! There are more homes to choose from. It seems there is relief from the days of drastically low inventory levels.

Compared to a year ago, residential inventory levels are up:
• 9% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld Counties)
• 45% in Metro Denver (wow!)

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You can get many more fun facts like these plus get our predictions on the 2019 market by joining our annual Market Forecast. Just click the link below!

https://www.eventbrite.com/o/windermere-real-estate-12011801121

Posted on January 11, 2019 at 6:36 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts | Tagged , , ,

Still Up

All the talk of the market cooling off might make someone think that prices must be going down.

The truth is prices are still going up.

Here are the latest year-over-year appreciation numbers from the Federal Housing Finance Authority (they track 243 markets all across the Country):

Colorado Springs 11.44%

Greeley 10.53%

Denver 9.97%

Boulder 9.89%

Fort Collins/Loveland 8.64%

Posted on December 21, 2018 at 6:46 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Waiting and Waiting

Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”

The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.

Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index.  They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.

Their numbers show:

  • Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
  • The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%

So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:

  • Might be waiting a long time
  • Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much
Posted on December 14, 2018 at 11:21 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , ,

Good Loan News

 

Here are two recently-announced pieces of really good news for home buyers.

 

  • The Colorado Housing and Finance Authority recently raised the income limit for their down payment assistance program to $115,600.  Now more people can get help with a down payment.
  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raised their conforming loan limits so that more people can use a conforming loan and not be forced to use a ‘jumbo’ loan.

Contact us if you would like to hear how these pieces of news could help you.


 

It’s Time to Register for the Market Forecast

Join us for an interactive and insightful look at Colorado real estate.  Our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner will give you all kinds of fun facts and takeaways about where are market has been and where it is going.

 

January 17th at 5:30 pm.  Marriott Fort Collins.

Seating is limited.

Click the blue button below to register.

REGISTER HERE

Posted on December 7, 2018 at 4:34 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts | Tagged , , ,

HQ3?  

The Front Range may have lost out on Amazon’s HQ2, but that doesn’t mean their company won’t affect our economy.

Denver was in the running for Amazon’s massive new second headquarters that supposedly would bring 50,000 new high-paying jobs and $5 Billion of investment.

In the end Amazon chose to split the headquarters among two East-Coast cities and many in Colorado breathed a sigh of relief.

But they are will continue to be an economic force in our state.

Over the past two years, Amazon has greatly expanded its footprint in Metro Denver, opening up a sorting center in Aurora, fulfillment centers in Aurora and Thornton, a Prime Now center in Denver and a new delivery center in Centennial.

They will soon have 3,000 workers here and that number is expected to grow significantly.

Posted on November 19, 2018 at 9:41 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts | Tagged ,