Where Are The Sales?

 

A high-level look at the Northern Colorado region shows that the number of residential sales is down 5.4% in Larimer County and up 4.7% in Weld County. This is simply comparing the number of closings from June 2018 to June 2019 versus June 2017 to June 2018.

 

The high-level look doesn’t tell the whole story. It get’s more interesting when we look at individual Northern Colorado cities and towns:

• Fort Collins = -8.8%
• Loveland = -5.7%
• Greeley = +11.7%
• Windsor = +16%
• Wellington = -16.9%
• Timnath = +44.1%
• Severance = +20.4%
• Johnstown = -18.7%
• Berthoud = +18.1%
• Evans = -14.7%

 

So, what can we learn from this? The areas with increased sales are where there is an abundance of new construction (Timnath and Severance for example).

The areas with decreased sales don’t have an abundance of new construction (Fort Collins for example).

The exceptions to this would be Wellington and Johnstown. It appears that there is price sensitivity to the new construction product now being built in these areas. Given rising costs, builders are challenged to deliver a product under $350,000 in these places.

For instance, in Wellington, between June 2017 and June 2018 there were 137 sales of new homes priced under $350,000. Today there are only 6 new homes on the market at that price point.

Posted on June 14, 2019 at 5:20 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Down Again

Mortgage rates dropped again for the fourth week in a row.

 

The average 30-year rate is now 4.06% which is the lowest it has been all year.

Rates today are actually the lowest they have been since early 2018.

The main factor driving rates down is the trade war with China.

Investors are shifting money from stocks into bonds which causes the yield on the 10-year Treasury to drop.

Mortgage rates are closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury.

At the beginning of the year, most experts believed that 2019 would have a trend of increasing mortgage rates eventually reaching 5.5%.

Instead, the opposite has happened, which is good news for real estate.

Posted on May 24, 2019 at 6:41 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Gardner Report, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

The Question of the Day

As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…

Did my property really go up that much?

Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.

First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.

 

Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.

Two Year Appreciation:

• Metro Denver = 18.65%
• Larimer County = 17.60%
• Weld County = 22.31%
• Boulder County = 16.28%


If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 10:29 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

What’s New?

All about new homes…

Nationally, sales of new homes are up 3% over last year and are running at an annualized pace of 697,000 homes.

To put that in perspective, in April 2011 the annual pace was 310,000 homes and in April 2005 it was 1,260,000.

So, nationally, new home starts are roughly double what they were at their lowest point in recent history and roughly half of what there were at their highest point.

How about locally?

According to our friends at Metrostudy, sales of new homes along the Front Range are up 20% over last year.

Front Range builders have had 28 consecutive quarters of new home start increases and are now building a similar amount of new homes as compared to 2007.

So, the new home market is strong but there is no indication of builders over-supplying the market.

Posted on April 29, 2019 at 6:22 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Get Real

We’ve seen some headlines recently that suggest home prices along the Front Range have peaked and are starting to decline.

When we dig in and do the research, this is what we find…

Home prices are still going up, just not as fast as they have been.

We’ve known that the double-digit appreciation that we’ve seen for the last several years could not be sustained and we expected the pace of appreciation to slow down.

So far in 2019, this is the case.  Prices still going up, just not as fast.

It’s like running up stairs.  Eventually you will get tired and you will need to start walking (but you’re still going up).

Headlines that suggest that prices have peaked and are falling create unrealistic expectations for buyers and give sellers a skewed perspective on the market.

Here are the numbers…

Average Price:

  • Up 1.53% in Metro Denver
  • Up 6.1% in Larimer County
  • Up 5.1% in Weld County

Months of Inventory:

  • 5 Months in Metro Denver
  • 5 Months in Larimer County
  • 4 Months in Weld County
  • (Remember that 4-6 months of inventory represents a balanced market)

There has been an increase in Days on Market which means that homes are taking longer to sell.  But the increase is measured in days, not months.

Here are those numbers…

Days on Market:

  • Up 4 Days in Metro Denver
  • Up 11 Days in Larimer County
  • Up 3 Days in Weld County

So, be mindful of headlines that can be sensationalized and might suggest that the market is falling.

Bottom line, the market is going up, just not as fast as it was.

Posted on April 5, 2019 at 5:50 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate, Sellers | Tagged , , , ,

Party Like It’s 2018!

 

Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.

You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019

(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).

While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).

Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.

Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.

Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!

Posted on March 24, 2019 at 5:29 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Condo Cyclone

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools last week, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

What’s the “Condo Cyclone”? It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

 

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
• Want to see the latest market trends? 
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home? 
• Interested in what it takes to own investment property? 
• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com

Posted on March 20, 2019 at 4:55 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Misery Index


Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”

A valuable statistic with a funny title.

The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.

It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.

Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.

The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.

       ________________________________________

         If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us.

We would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 28, 2019 at 6:35 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Fun Facts, Gardner Report | Tagged ,

Our Forecast

Our Forecast

 

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

 

Thank you to the 700 people who attended.  We appreciate your support!

 

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:

 

  • In 2018 Prices went up:
    • 8% in Fort Collins
    • 8% in Loveland
    • 8.5% in Greeley
    • 8% in Metro Denver
  • Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
    • Up 25% in Northern Colorado
    • Up 45% in Metro Denver
  • There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
  • There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
    • New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
    • Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
    • The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
    • The homeownership rate is back to the long-term average.
  • Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
    • 6% in Fort Collins
    • 6% in Loveland
    • 7% in Greeley
    • 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on January 18, 2019 at 7:22 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts, Gardner Report, Real Estate, Sellers | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

More Choices

Great news for buyers! There are more homes to choose from. It seems there is relief from the days of drastically low inventory levels.

Compared to a year ago, residential inventory levels are up:
• 9% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld Counties)
• 45% in Metro Denver (wow!)

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You can get many more fun facts like these plus get our predictions on the 2019 market by joining our annual Market Forecast. Just click the link below!

https://www.eventbrite.com/o/windermere-real-estate-12011801121

Posted on January 11, 2019 at 6:36 pm
Julie Maxwell | Category: Buyers, Fun Facts | Tagged , , ,